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Data Analysis Machine Learning

Markov chains are all you need (to write bad Christmas songs)

Large language models (LLMs) are all the rage these days. They can write (occasionally buggy) code, help you write generic-sounding prose quickly…but can they write ungrammatical Christmas songs? Call me a Luddite, but I’m skeptical.

Luckily, there is a language model out there that doesn’t require 1TB of GPU RAM and a nuclear-reactor-enabled-data-center to .eval(). In fact, with a little determination, you could probably run it natively in a spreadsheet…or on pen-and-paper.

That’s right, I’m talking about Markov chains (of the first order).

But remember when you gave it must be
Let's lay here tonight
But it's a rock
Where the old and the old and that's not a new year
Sure did see mommy kissing santa comes around the mistletoe hung by the king pa rum bu bum
We all year i'll give us annoyed
And i want for christmas christmas is coming to need you better be glad you're sleeping
You my wish come
And a beard that's past
We wish you baby
I'll have a crowded room friends on his sled
Must be

Markov chains are a simple yet ubiquitous probabilistic model that assumes that the probability of what happens next only depends on what is happening now. For a language model, this means that the probability of what word (or token if you’re a nerd) comes next only depends on what the current word is. If we run this process repeatedly, word-after-word, we get things resembling sentences.

I can’t say I’m a huge fan of Christmas pop/rock songs (but I can evaluate it’s likelihood). However, I also think they are corny.

Guide us some decorations of dough
She didn't see
And practicing real famous cat all your soul of mouths to see me
I've got it over
Underneath the jingle bell time for you will you dear if you cheer
You gave you and bright
The very merry christmas girl
Jingle bell jingle bell rock the halls
Let love you dismay
I want it felt like i'm watching it over again
So long long distance
It's lovely weather for christmas all year it always this christmas to succeed

But I don’t want to deal with “gradients” or “descent” or the latest attempt to retcon RNNs (I prefer my BPTT to run sequentially and then vanish…or explode). In the words of Todd Rundgren: “I don’t want to work, I just want to” histogram some lyrics I copied off the internet.

So. I downloaded the lyrics to 30-some pop/rock Christmas songs, fired up a jupyter notebook, deleted some punctuation, and (with a mere 1 vector and 1 matrix) started generating lyrics and posted them here.

Side note: AC/DC released a Christmas song titled: “Mistress for Christmas” in 1990 about Donald Trump cheating on his wife. I had no idea.

You baby
I'm watching it from tears
'cause i believed in trouble out you guys know what time i know
And unto certain
Ding dong
Oh my bedroom fast asleep
A merry-go-round
You and cheer
A beard that's white
I thought you gave you make us some money to the halls
Don't want to set before the world will share this one
Hurry tell him hurry down

Mostly..what I’ve learned…is that Christmas songs are weird and often not really about Christmas at all. I’ll post the data and code soon so that you too can generate bad Christmas lyrics using AI.

My bedroom fast asleep
Ho ho
She got it
You've really can't stay
Oh what a happy new year i'll have termites in trouble out there all over now i've missed 'em
The window at a poor boy child what have some magic reindeer to thy perfect light shine on a button nose
So i thrill when you a cactus
This tear
I'll give all need love breathe
I'll give it to someone
I wouldn't touch you have fun if you want it as opportunistic
The mistletoe last year to town